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January 2008

links for 2008-01-01 → feeds.feedburner.com

  • Kevin Jon Heller: Bilal Hussein’s Kangaroo Court

  • James Doran and Richard Wachman: Merrill seeks more funds to avoid crisis

  • Econbrowser: Home sales and prices continue to fall

  • Horses Mouth December 31, 2007 10:17 AM

  • Matthew Yglesias

  • Donald Gregg: George Smiley’s War

  • Sheera Claire Frenkel: Seven hurt in punch-up at Church of the Nativity

Jan 1, 2008
New York Times Death Spiral Watch → feeds.feedburner.com

Why oh why can’t we have a better press corps? Matthew Yglesias watches Sam Tanenhaus’s book review on Jonah Goldberg:

Matthew Yglesias: If You’ve Got Nothing Nice to Say: 31 Dec 2007 09:04 a: I just hope The New York Times Book Review is as kind to my book when the time comes as they were to Jonah Goldberg (of course, realistically we’re all just desperately hoping to be reviewed at all): “Yet the title of his book aside, what distinguishes Goldberg from the Sean Hannitys and Michael…

Jan 1, 2008
Liquidity vs. Minor-Solvency vs. Major Solvency Crises--No--Panic vs. Interest-Rates-Are-too-High vs. The-Financial System-Is-Totally-B***ered Crises--No--I Need Better Names! → feeds.feedburner.com

Calculated Risk has insightful comments on my Project Syndicate article. Here is one:

Calculated Risk: Delong: Three cures for three crises: I don’t think it’s quite that bad. Even if the losses for investors and lenders reach $1 trillion (a possibility), I think the financial system can absorb those losses. Sure, some players might disappear, and others might have to sell significant assets (or dilute their shareholders), but I don’t think the choice is between serious inflation and…

Dec 31, 2007
Sheera Claire Frenkel: Seven hurt in punch-up at Church of the Nativity → timesonline.co.uk
Dec 31, 2007
Three Different Cures for Three Types of Financial Crises → feeds.feedburner.com

From the Taipei Times — Project Syndicate:

Three cures for three crises by J. Bradford Delong: Tuesday, Jan 01, 2008, Page 9:

A full-scale financial crisis is triggered by a sharp fall in the prices of a large set of assets that banks and other financial institutions own, or that make up their borrowers’ financial reserves. The cure depends on which of three modes define the fall in asset prices.

The first — and easiest to handle — mode is when investors refuse to buy at…

Dec 31, 2007
Donald Gregg: George Smiley's War → washingtonpost.com
Dec 31, 2007
“it is still a mystery to me why television news remains so dissatisfying, so superficial, and so irrelevant. Disappointed veterans like Walter Cronkite and Dan Rather blame the moral failure of ratings-obsessed executives, but it’s not that simple. I can say with confidence that Murrow would be outraged not so much by the networks’ greed (Murrow was one of the first news personalities to hire a talent agent) as by the missed opportunity to use technology to help create a nation of engaged citizens bent on preserving their freedom and their connections to the broader world. I knew it was pretty much over for television news when I discovered in 2003 that the heads of NBC’s news division and entertainment division, the president of the network, and the chairman all owned TiVos, which enabled them to zap past the commercials that paid their salaries. “It’s such a great gadget. It changed my life,” one of them said at a corporate affair in the Saturday Night Live studio. It was neither the first nor the last time that a television executive mistook a fundamental technological change for a new gadget.” —John Hockenberry: http://www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=19845
Dec 31, 2007
“Last year, after two failed attempts earlier in life, I decided to quit smoking…. I think my main piece of advice to people considering a similar pledge for 2008 would be to consider not doing it. The reality is that the first week or so of withdrawal is incredibly awful and then it remains really hard for a while after that. Last year, I saw several friends put themselves through the incredibly awful part and then go back to smoking. That’s no fun, and really something worth avoiding…. [T]he big problem on my earlier efforts was that I didn’t really want to quit smoking. Rather, what I wanted to do was transform myself into someone more like some of my other friends — people who smoked the odd cigarette socially or maybe even in some moment of crucial stress, but who weren’t cripplingly dependent on constant infusions of nicotine. I wanted to avoid the kind of addict behavior that induced feelings of self-loathing and reduce the quantity of toxins I was ingesting but I didn’t really want to stop smoking. After all, I didn’t like being an addict when it sent me running down the halls of O’Hare airport to exit the terminal and snag a smoke before my connecting flight took off, but most of the time I enjoyed smoking quite a bit. But for me at least, it wasn’t possible to find the middle ground. Earlier efforts, based on the idea that somehow I could… “break” the addiction, and then re-invent myself as a social smoker failed pathetically. What’s worked, so far, has been to adopt a humorless and un-fun AA-like attitude which says I just needed to face up to a lack of control over my desire to smoke and resolve to not smoke any cigarettes ever again no matter what. That, as I say, worked, but it was really kind of crappy. My work suffered for a while, as did my social life; I started going to the gym somewhat regularly, which I hate, and I put on weight anyway. In the end, it’s change for the better, but it’s not really worth entering into lightly.” — Matthew Yglesias
(December 31, 2007) - Quitting Time (Miscellaneous)
Dec 31, 2007
Matthew Yglesias → matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com
Dec 31, 2007
Horses Mouth December 31, 2007 10:17 AM → talkingpointsmemo.com
Dec 31, 2007
Econbrowser: Home sales and prices continue to fall → econbrowser.com
Dec 31, 2007
“The banks borrowed $20 billion for 28 days at 4.65%. They’re spending $72 1/3 million dollars to exchange some securities for cash. If those securities had been traded at those same prices, at the Federal Funds rate of 4.25%, the banks would have spent $66 1/9 million. The banks, in theory, left $6 2/9 million on the table. So, if we look at economic reality—in which a bank would not do that—we have to come to the obvious conclusion: the value the Fed was willing to place upon those securities was at least 8.6% higher (40/465) than the price those securities would have fetched were they used as collateral in the open market. The “technical” term for the TAF is “corporate welfare.” Anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to sell something—probably overvalued securities.” —Marginal Utility: 93 Banks are not Rational Actors — or they have just been subsidized
Dec 31, 2007
“I don’t think [the current financial crisis is] quite that bad [as DeLong’s third category suggests]. Even if the losses for investors and lenders reach $1 trillion (a possibility), I think the financial system can absorb those losses. Sure, some players might disappear, and others might have to sell significant assets (or dilute their shareholders), but I don’t think the choice is between serious inflation and depression. Still, I think the “Yikes” tag fits.” —Calculated Risk: Delong: Three cures for three crises
Dec 31, 2007

December 2007

James Doran and Richard Wachman: Merrill seeks more funds to avoid crisis → guardian.co.uk
Dec 31, 2007
Kevin Jon Heller: Bilal Hussein's Kangaroo Court → opiniojuris.org
Dec 31, 2007
links for 2007-12-31 → feeds.feedburner.com

  • Tanta: Let the Short Sale Scams Begin

  • Kerwin Kofi Charles and Jonathan Guryan: Prejudice and the Economics of Discrimination

  • Gordon’s Notes: Music industry sows the wind

  • Digby: Bipartisan Zombies

Dec 31, 2007
Digby: Bipartisan Zombies → digbysblog.blogspot.com
Dec 30, 2007
The New York Times Hires Lord Haw-Haw--Excuse Me, William Kristol → feeds.feedburner.com

The death spiral of the New York Times begins:

Kristol Clear: Times’ editorial page editor Andy Rosenthal defended the [hiring of William Kristol]. Rosenthal told Politico.com…. “The idea that The New York Times is giving voice to a guy who is a serious, respected conservative intellectual — and somehow that’s a bad thing,” Rosenthal added. “How intolerant is that?”…

Many people would be interested in reading a newspaper that publishes the writings of a serious, respected…

Dec 30, 2007
“

Download Uproar: Record Industry Goes After Personal Use - washingtonpost.com “the industry maintains that it is illegal for someone who has legally purchased a CD to transfer that music into his computer. The industry’s lawyer in the case, Ira Schwartz, argues in a brief filed earlier this month that the MP3 files Howell made on his computer from legally bought CDs are “unauthorized copies” of copyrighted recordings…. …At the Thomas trial in Minnesota, Sony BMG’s chief of litigation, Jennifer Pariser, testified that “when an individual makes a copy of a song for himself, I suppose we can say he stole a song.” Copying a song you bought is “a nice way of saying ‘steals just one copy,’ ” she said…”

Meanwhile, in Canada, the music industry proposes to put a rather substantial tax on memory cards — with an iPod tariff to come.

Fools. Until now a substantial number of elder geeks (i.e. people with money) have been on the sidelines of the copyright wars. For us the iPod has meant a renewed interest in music, and a steady stream of CD purchases (since we distrust DRM intensely, we don’t buy online). We’ve been on the establishment-friendly side of Pogue’s demographic copyright gulf. But now … Now the music industry is trying to change the rules of the game. That’s not fair. The Geek Code of Honor requires us to respond by the ancient rule of sheeps and lambs. Some will say the Code obliges us to support the theft of music and video alike, for the criminals have now become the honest outlaw. The RIAA really shouldn’t have crossed this line.

”
—Gordon’s Notes: Music industry sows the wind
Dec 30, 2007
Gordon's Notes: Music industry sows the wind → jfaughnan.blogspot.com
Dec 30, 2007
Kerwin Kofi Charles and Jonathan Guryan: Prejudice and the Economics of Discrimination → nber.org
Dec 30, 2007
Tanta: Let the Short Sale Scams Begin → calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
Dec 30, 2007
links for 2007-12-30 → feeds.feedburner.com

  • Dahlia Lithwick: The Bush administration’s dumbest legal arguments of the year

  • Brad DeLong in his office.

  • The current financial crisis rolls forward…

  • Economist’s View: Glenn Rudebusch of FRBSF: National Economic Outlook

  • Health Beat: The New York Times “Gets Cracking” on Rising Health Care Costs

  • Paul Krugman: Carbon Emissions Graph

  • Hilzoy: The Army’s unwillingness to accept openly gay soldiers has always struck me as not just bigoted, but…

Dec 30, 2007
Duncan Black: They Knew They Were Right: From the publicity material for Jacob Heilbrunn's new book, subtitled "The Rise of the Neocons": "Heilbrunn argues that neoconservatism has been unfairly demonized. Indeed, their ambitious vision of a democratic Ir → atrios.blogspot.com
Dec 29, 2007
Kevin Drum on Michael Barbero of the New York Times: Question: why does this happen so routinely? Wages that are up 3% in a period when inflation is running 4% aren't actually up. Spending that's up 3% in a period when inflation is running 4% isn't actual → washingtonmonthly.com
Dec 29, 2007
Anuj Gangahar, Guy Dinmore, Bertrand Benoit, and Peggy Hollinger: Poor Christmas sales leave stores hungry → ft.com
Dec 29, 2007
Saeed Shah: McClatchy Washington Bureau: Attendee at Bhutto rally: 'There was pandemonium' → mcclatchydc.com
Dec 29, 2007
Dean Foster and Peyton Young: Hedge Fund Wizards → brookings.edu
Dec 29, 2007
Tariq Ali: A tragedy born of military despotism and anarchy → guardian.co.uk
Dec 29, 2007
Evhead: Will it fly? How to Evaluate a New Product Idea → evhead.com
Dec 29, 2007
Geek to Live: Instant, no-overhead blog with Tumblr → lifehacker.com
Dec 29, 2007
“At a time when America is the acknowledged world superpower, such a rollercoaster beneath its leadership can easily be misunderstood. In its paranoid reaction to the events of 2001, America under George W Bush appeared reckless and imperialist, a bully and a “preemptive aggressor”. It has fought indecisive and incompetent wars against weak countries that America cannot help and can only plunge into poverty and misery. To the wider world, it seems to crave enemies not friends, losing sight of Kennedy’s inaugural admonition that “civility is not a sign of weakness”. The neoconservative denizens of Washington have been reduced to polluting their intelligence, suspending habeas corpus and debating the uses of torture. They seem unable to engage with other world powers on such matters as trade reform, international law and the future of the United Nations. This is why America’s friends abroad have felt more despair this past five years than in the previous 50. To turn a phrase once applied to Britain by the American diplomatist Dean Acheson, America has acquired an empire but not found a role. Yet there is to be an election…. Any visitor to that country can sense a yearning for a change…. America seems desperate to give itself at least the option of a black president, of the idealism of a born-again Kennedy. That Obama’s candidature can be contemplated in a land that has twice voted for Bush and Dick Cheney is the measure of how drastically America’s constitution allows it to cleanse its politics and grasp at something new. It does so by inculcating respect for its documents. The Flushing Remonstrance, the Declaration of Independence, the Bill of Rights, the Emancipation Proclamation do more than set out the basis on which a commonwealth conducts its business. They offer a blueprint for the purgative tradition, summed up in H L Mencken’s famous definition of elections as “chucking the rapscallions out”. When America appears to teeter on the brink of disaster, “the book” drags it back. In an age of overweening government, only the book has the power to call it to account. That is why Americans revere their historic documents…” —Simon Jenkins: America’s constitution produces a pure democracy we will never have
Dec 29, 2007
DeLong Smackdown Watch Update: Henry Farrell → feeds.feedburner.com

Henry Farrell on Brad DeLong, Friedrich Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, James Scott, High Modernism, Jane Jacobs, the collectivization of agriculture, Karl Polanyi, rubber tomatos, the despised medieval Jewish Maghribi traders, and the cheap restaurants of Florence, Italy:

Crooked Timber » » DeLong, Scott and Hayek: I think that [DeLong] is fair up to a point – [James] Scott should develop his critique of bureaucratic capitalism in [Seeing Like a State] much more explicitly than he does. But…

Dec 29, 2007
*Blush*: David Brooks Gives Me too Much Credit → feeds.feedburner.com

David Brooks writes:

The Sidney Awards II - New York Times: Three other essays are worth your time…. In the Chronicle of Higher Education, J. Bradford DeLong wrote “Creative Destruction’s Reconstruction” on why Joseph Schumpeter matters to the 21st century…

Blush.

Don’t get me wrong—I like the essay I wrote a lot, and Tom McGraw’s Schumpeter biography is excellent. But even I don’t think it’s in the world’s top 20 essays for 2007…

And what credit there is should be…

Dec 29, 2007
Note to Self: John Kenneth Galbraith: Sisyphus as Social Democrat → feeds.feedburner.com

Note to self: I really need to rethink and expand this. I have the sense that there are absolutely dazzling and important insights back there somewhere that did not make it out of my brain when I wrote:

J. Bradford DeLong (2005), “Sisyphus as Social Democrat,” _ From Foreign Affairs, _ (May/June): Review of Richard Parker (2005), John Kenneth Galbraith: His Life, His Politics, His Economics. Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2005, 820 pp. $35.00.

Summary:  John Kenneth Galbraith’s…

Dec 29, 2007
The Housing and Exports Do-Si-Do → feeds.feedburner.com

From Paul Krugman:

Why we havent had a recession (so far) - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog: Why we haven’t had a recession (so far) The housing bust has lived up fully to my expectations. So far, however, the economy has held up surprisingly well (ask me again in a few months). How come?

It’s the exports, stupid.

I haven’t seen this chart published elsewhere, but it seems to me that it tells the story. The blue line shows residential investment as a share of GDP…

Dec 29, 2007
Play
Dec 29, 2007
“Not to say the dollar is in trouble, but the gas station I stopped at on my way to work has a sign advertising 2 Krispy Kreme donuts for $2, which means that the all-important dollars to donuts exchange rate is now one to one.” —Mike Terry: Yet Another Damn Blog
Dec 29, 2007
Dec 29, 2007
Dec 29, 2007
Dec 29, 2007
Dec 29, 2007
Rainy Grey Afternoon Female Vocalist Blogging → feeds.feedburner.com

Rainy grey afternoons are so rare around here, they must be savored appropriately:

Rilo Kiley, “Silver Lining”:

Bonnie Raitt, “Angel from Montgomery”

Alison Brown, “Angel”

Liz Phair, “Divorce Song”:

Dec 29, 2007
links for 2007-12-29 → feeds.feedburner.com

  • Paul Krugman: The Trouble With Trade

  • AppleInsider: Using iPod & iPhone Video Out: Background and In-Depth Review

Dec 29, 2007
A Burning Question Answered! → feeds.feedburner.com

Many of us have asked over the years: “Was David Ignatius always the clueless ignorant dweeeb he is today?”

The answer is now clear: the answer is “yes”:

The Legacy of Benazir Bhutto: by David Ignatius Friday, December 28, 2007; A21: Try to imagine a young Pakistani woman bounding into the newsroom of the Harvard Crimson in the early 1970s and banging out stories about college sports teams with the passion of a cub reporter. That was the first glimpse some of us had of Benazir Bhutto. We…

Dec 28, 2007
Technological Progress → feeds.feedburner.com

From http://blog.gadgetlite.com/: 1 Gigabyte in 1987 and 2007:

Dec 28, 2007
DeLong Smackdown Watch... → feeds.feedburner.com

Surely there must be more things worthy of being immortalized in the DeLong Smackdown Watch, mustn’t there? Anybody have any favorites? Anybody? Anybody? Bueller?

DeLong Smackdown Watch archives:

Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong’s Semi-Daily Journal: DeLong Smackdown Watch: From D-Squared Digest: The unique Daniel Davies writes:

D-squared Digest — FOR bigger pies and shorter hours and AGAINST more or less everything else: This is such a big heap of partisan…

Dec 28, 2007
Micro-Directory → delong.typepad.com
Dec 28, 2007
Calculated Risk on New Home Sales → feeds.feedburner.com

Calculated Risk writes:

Calculated Risk: More on New Home Sales: Let’s start with revisions. This month (November) is one of the few months were the initial report wasn’t higher than the previous month. Usually the small reported gain in sales is then revised away in subsequent releases…. [T]he Census Bureau revised down sales for August, September and October. This has been the pattern for most of the housing bust; almost all the revisions have been down. I believe the Census Bureau is…

Dec 28, 2007
It's Not a Lecture: If I Were a Congressional Staffer... → feeds.feedburner.com

David Wescott writes:

It’s Not a Lecture: If I were a congressional staffer…

…the bits of data I’d give the Senator tomorrow would probably include the following:

Home forclosures rose 68 percent in November from the previous November.… Because the US savings rate is so low, people have been relying on their houses as a source of wealth and equity. When adjustable rate mortgages reset, wages remained relatively stagnant, and other costs (like healthcare) continued to rise,…

Dec 28, 2007
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